This week in the prediction markets:
US Vice President Kamala Harris is now seven numbers ahead of Donald Trump on Polymarketplace, after reversing market prediction odds on August 9 and leveling off the day before.
Harris’ “yes” rates were trading at 52 cents on crypto betting platform Monday morning in the United States, meaning the market sees a 52% chance of her winning the presidency. Each percentage earns $1 in USDC, a hard currency or cryptocurrency that trades at par with the US dollar, if the prediction comes true, and 0 otherwise. Trump’s percentages were becoming forty-five cents.
Less than a month ago, before President Joe Biden dropped out of the race and subsidized Harris, Trump’s odds were as high as 72%.
Read More: Crypto Experts Court Vice President Harris Chase, Whisper His Open-Mindedness
Since emerging as the most sensible person on the Democratic ticket, Harris has enjoyed brilliant politics in the mainstream press and celebrity endorsements, while Trump’s recent public performances have reportedly unsettled his advisers.
On the other hand, commercial particularities could overestimate the extent of the change in fortunes at Polymarket.
An active political bettor participating in the so-called CSPTrading. eth said that he has observed the promotion of panic and groupthink in election markets.
CSPTrading. eth issues some statewide marketplaces (the component of which will bring Alaska or Indiana, for example) where a trader will sell a “rapidly depreciating asset” and others will stick to its demand.
“They don’t need to hold the bag,” he said.
There are arbitrage opportunities in Polymarket’s checks and balances contracts, where investors can buy exposure to a Trump presidency for a lower value than the main contract, CSPTrading. eth said.
For example, a contract that asks bettors to bet on the option that Republicans will ascend to the presidency and Senate, but Democrats win the House (and some models look like Republicans have a 78% chance of winning the Senate) lately trades at 12 cents. (or a 12% option), while a contract that predicts a Republican victory is 28%.
Elon Musk and Donald Trump will appear on X’s virtual airwaves on Monday night US time, and there’s a good chance the former president will mention cryptocurrencies.
Bettors give a 60% chance that Trump will conduct the interview, which turns out to be a safe bet given that his attendance at the recent BTC 2024 convention sold out and he received thunderous applause.
There’s one problem: Trump will have to say “crypto” specifically. Not Bitcoin, not Ethereum, but the general term itself. Any use of the word, adding plural or possessive forms, will count towards the settlement of the agreement, according to the rules. Compound words that add “crypto” and refer to decentralized currencies will also count.
Bookmakers also give high odds that “MAGA,” “censorship” or “censorship,” “Tesla,” and “illegal immigrant” will be mentioned.
Two contracts asked bettors about Trump’s return to X, with one asking whether he would tweet again before the election and whether he would tweet until the end of September.
The first had a volume of approximately $150,000, and a user through the so-called “BarronTrump” held the maximum shares on the yes side, taking home more than $9,000. This trader also recently took a position valued at $5,600 in a contract under which Kamala Harris would win the election.
A second-place user on Trump-Twitter pocketed $8,500. This trader also holds a significant “yes” percentage on the Harris side of the election. Array lately valued at over $35,000.
In the smaller contract, which asked whether Trump would revert to X until Sept. 30, only two bettors were on the “yes” side, with $34 between them. On the “no” side, the largest user lost just over $5,100. and it turns out that he is only interested in that contract and whether the Binance exchange will include a self-proclaimed “crypto casino” token, Rollbit.
This initial demo lacked a release date.
Bettors on Kalshi, a regulated platform in the United States where bets are settled in dollars, give a 38% chance that Sora will launch before 2025, up from 75% when the deal was initiated in May.
One of the problems OpenAI could face is the intensive computing load involved in generating real-time videos. As CoinDesk reported earlier this year, research organization Fractorial Funds estimates that 720,000 high-end Nvidia H100 GPUs would be needed to service TikTok and YouTube. Artistic network with videos generated by AI.
That amount of silicon would cost $21. 6 billion, according to the report’s statistics, and the total number of cards would be greater than Meta, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Oracle and Tencent (some of Nvidia’s biggest consumers) combined.
SemiAnalysis studies show that demand for AI server capacity is expected to double, with global knowledge average power needs expanding from 49 gigawatts in 2023 to 96 GW through 2026. This expected sharp increase in energy demand means that even Texas, which has traditionally embraced Bitcoin mining and electrically extensive knowledge centers, is bitter at the thought of developing more capacity.
A canopy for all this: Chinese company ByteDance recently launched its own edition of a text-to-video generator, which is only available to users in China. There are limits to the amount of video each user can generate, but it shows it. All this is not impossible.
This story originally appeared on Coindesk