MBW Views is a series of exclusive opinion pieces written through prominent figures in the music industry. . . with something to say. The following comes from Pivot’s Will Page, a former lead economist at Spotify and PRS for Music, and a fellow at the London School of Economics. Page discusses the cancellation of 50 (fifty!) music festivals in the UK so far this year and what this says about the future of the entertainment industry.
And he says, “Remember the saying: If you build one more space, the housing market will go under?Buckle up, because festivals are now feeling that heat. . . »
It’s no secret that Britain’s major summer festivals are suffering this year.
For all the communication of the rise of Swiftonomics in Edinburgh, Liverpool and London stadiums, for UK festivals, it’s a massacre with 50 (fifty!) cancellations, and counting.
You can find the patient list at the end of this article, but let’s start by looking at how we got here.
This time last year, I presented MBW readers with some calculations for 2022: 2 2 = 4.
UK consumers spent just over £2 billion on live music and £2 billion on recorded music, bringing total spending in 2022 to £4. 1 billion. This represents an increase of nearly one billion through 2019 before lockdown.
Impressed? If we now add £700 million in additional spending on the 2023 total – an expansion of 10% on record and 24% – we are on track for £5 billion (£4. 9 billion, see below).
In addition, the percentage of music in consumers’ “recreational” wallets in 2023 will increase to 3. 3%. In other words, music occupies a larger percentage of a larger portfolio.
And then, he stopped.
First, there have been reports in the U. S. low-demand stadium tours, where online seat maps reveal to the customer how lonely they will feel internally (#maladroit!).
IQ then announced that more of the UK festivals had been cancelled.
Now it amounts to 50.
As festival organizers stare at the barrel of their guns this summer, why?
The most productive endeavor I can offer MBW readers is to formulate the challenge so that they can make it as productive as possible.
To do this, I’ll explore five questions: costs and needs are obvious, culture and climate are less obvious. . .
John Rostron, executive director of the Association of Independent Festivals, points directly to the costs.
The source forces and ask for help, however, this year the promoters of the festival are facing a credit crisis that is hurting them, regardless of the sale price of the tickets.
In many ways, festivals, big and small, are facing a triple whammy: Brexit, Covid and now inflation, and those prices imposed on festival organisers have been simmering for some years and overflowing.
“Toilet rent for a festival in 2021 amounted to £28,000. Then, for exactly the same amount of material in 2024, we were offered £54,000 first.
Millie Devereux, we are the trade fair
Millie Devereux, Production Director of We Are The Fair, notes: “Budgets have increased exponentially since COVID-19. The bathroom rental for a festival in 2021 was £28,000. Then, for exactly the same amount of equipment in 2024, we were the first of all to present £54,000. Compare that to the average ticket price, which has only increased by 17% between 2019 and today.
This is the current calculation of the promoters of the credit crisis: either it happens, or prices rise, or it stops.
Rostron’s solution is for the UK government to throw a temporary lifeline to the industry and a VAT of 20% to 5%.
“Reducing VAT can move from losses to gains, as it provides a respite from the unpredictable and uncontrollable costs of the source chain,” he says. “If they had done it sooner, many of the 50 cancellations would still have occurred. “
One trend is emerging from the massacre of cancellations: festivals of multiple genres are being hit hard, and if you look at the music consumers stream online, the collapse of human publishing and the consequent rise of the rule set would possibly explain why.
Festivals work because we all gather around a major level at night and sing the same songs together. If our point of connection is rarely much like that of others with impulses (but our own exclusive algorithmic choice), then festivals serve as a niche box that is rarely a very straightforward sell.
“A festival lineup that isn’t very focused on one genre is starting to look like a playlist that’s created and tailor-made for others. “
Glenn McDonald
Perhaps we are not at a point where any single artist can fill a festival. In addition, many other acts confuse the client trained through algorithms. Glenn McDonald, of the brilliant e-book You Have Not Heard your Favourite Song, says that “a non-genre-specific festival poster programming is starting to look like a playlist created and custom-designed for someone else. “
Another way to take a look at this niche market is to compare a supermarket with a specialized butcher: after all, they both sell the same product. If you put a K-Pop organization at the level of a festival, you might sell a lot of tickets for one day. , e-book 3 and have the largest K-Pop festival in Britain.
If we take a look at a niche field, it explains why artists and festivals with a clear USP will weather the storm. Take the soul- and jazz-focused Love Supreme Festival, for example, which does just that: where demand has held up well. This year.
Richard Kramer (co-host of the Bubble Trouble podcast) reminds us how bubbles create problems when we “go over our skis. ” Stadiums and festivals have exploded in volume and value, capturing some of the UK box office in 2022 (compared to a fifth ten years ago), which may explain why their skis have slipped.
For what? Concertgoers had cash back then, now they have less, and with inflation ingrained in the price and everything around it, they’re spending less. In addition, a giant component will be loyal to Taylor Swift.
It’s not a race to the bottom, it’s a race to the top: other people prioritize their spending (e. g. , vacations, city breaks, dining out, favorite acts, and festivals) and when they rationalize, the most beloved one wins. It applies to festivals as well as restaurants.
This echoes a name from last year, “go big or stay home”; Consumers are willing to spend heaps of euros on stadium shows, but they don’t save money to begin with. One of the reasons is hidden in my e-book Pivot, and for that, we want to think about retail.
Chris Gardener of real estate advertising giant CBRE says no one goes to outlets anymore and asks, “You. . . ?
If a risk is perceived, it may not be in stock, by default they turn to Amazon. Perhaps a stadium also reduces the dangers of the experiment?
A common reaction from those who have been to festivals in the past but decided not to attend this year is that they “didn’t think they had friends to hang out with. “I don’t have the ability to unpack this one, but I’ll try to help you do so by pointing out two things.
First, social media can lead to what Amazon’s Katie Vitolins has called a “claustrophobia of abundance. “They might have many (or thousands) of friends online, but that doesn’t translate into human interaction in the festival arena.
Second, the market is targeting many of this year’s festivals (school leavers (18-19) and graduates (21-23), those age teams were caught in the terrible crossfire of the 2020 pandemic. Healing this wound would possibly still be a painting in progress.
“The tattooed enthusiasts of their favorite band or those who recite words word for word. . . they make a lot more sense than any knowledge panel. “
Anxiety about future generations aside, another attention is that the internet, which I’ve long supported, can make almost anything other than intimacy bigger. Promoters will have to show a wry smile when record labels debate the definition of a “superfan. “.
Looking for superfan signals in a prorated streaming knowledge pool doesn’t make sense.
Marty Diamond, a legendary booking agent, once told me that the knowledge he relies on is the relationship between consistent and consistent perspectives with sight. Many consistent perspectives without commentary have an effect on many “mehs,” but less consistent perspectives are accompanied by positive consistency. with proportion means a lot of committed fans.
For promoters, not only do they have to juggle the upheavals of value and rarity, but they can also visibly count tattooed enthusiasts from their favorite band or those who recite lyrics word for word. It makes a lot more sense than any knowledge panel.
Finally (as we know very well in the UK), it’s for the first part of 2024. Or to put it more objectively, we had the rainiest 20% of March, the sixth wettest April in the last 189 years. , and well above average rainfall in June. This will be due to the possible choices made through the consumer.
“WizzAir will take you [from the UK] to Lisbon for £29. 99. “
Elena José
“Less money, more options,” commented social commentator Elena Joseph. “Reading requires a 3-digit number starting with 3 (£325 per ticket), while WizzAir will take you to Lisbon by a two-digit number starting with two (£29. 99). “
He concludes: “Younger generations who are tired of the British weather can simply bide their time and then save up and head south, where the sun will shine this summer. “
The global real estate ad coined the word “take back the ride”: you can’t just expect workers to return to the office, but you also want to earn their respect by offering them more comfort and convenience.
So how can we “get back” concertgoers?
It will not be easy. I can temporarily spit out a list of alarming headwinds: the disposable income stream is shrinking as inflation falters (and pushes more of us into the highest tax brackets) and the expiration of favorable lending rates looms a time bomb.
But festivals oppose this with their own tailwinds, such as investing in on-site supermarkets that offer (more) reasonable beer for those who need to have fun, while also focusing on yoga offerings. Pilates and wellness centers for those who don’t.
If offices can do it, so can festivals. Now begins the time to think of new ones.
The British Association of Independent Festivals has maintained a list of music festivals that will already be cancelled for 2024 or end their event. Now there are more than 50.
Reproduced with permission here:
Keep It Real Folk Festival. Festival cancelled. The unknown reason turns out to be the denial of the license.
The Summer Solstice Festival. Permit denied a few days before the residents’ hearing
Fête de Géronimo. Cancelled two months before the end. ” The occasion has an unsustainable monetary risk. “
Zen Festival. Cancelled for 2024. No suggestions, you’ll be back.
Starry town. Cancelled one month before the festival. Rising inflation has led to a drastic drop in producer prices, and the cost-of-living crisis has impacted ticket sales, as other people struggle to make ends meet. Unfortunately, this has led to the very difficult and unhappy resolution that it is simply not viable for Starry Village to continue.
Under the stars. The announced festival will be the last, for now. ” This decision, although difficult, is the right one when we embark on these new chapters of our lives. “
Another world music festival. It was postponed until 2025 due to licensing issues and low-priced ticket sales.
Fête des Balises. ” The Beacon team had to make a difficult decision in the face of skyrocketing festival spending: the 2024 Beacon Festival will be the last. “
Askern Music Festival. Postponed until 2025, the 2024 occasion denied the license on protection grounds.
51st State Day. Postponed to 2025. Due to the cost-of-living crisis, a significant increase in operating prices and operational issues, as an independent festival, it is economically viable for us to continue into 2024. “
Towersey Festival. Announcement that this year’s edition, the 60th, will be the last. “Like many other independent and popular festivals, we have faced too many forces beyond our control, which has made it difficult for us to serve and survive. “.
Twisted party. Postponed after wasting your site and not being able to secure a new site on time. I intend to return in 2025.
Bingley Challenge Festival. Canceled three days before the event, they said “safety concerns,” adding that fencing off a forest in the event of a fire, had led to the cancellation of the event.
El Dorado. Canceled for 2024. Over the past year, like many others, we have faced a dramatic increase in the operating costs of operating a show like El Dorado, compounded by the impact of the emerging burden of living in the festival industry and our community. Despite our most productive efforts, we face the threat of catastrophic losses.
Welliestock. ” I tried for months to reduce the cost of the event, but unfortunately, as everything was much more expensive than in 2018, I couldn’t find a way that would have forced us to double the value of the tickets, which is what we have been looking for. Avoid it, as we want to make it an affordable family occasion.
Feast of Visions. “Get a deserved for 2024. “
Party by the river. “Lower than expected sales and higher prices for infrastructure, staff, transportation and artists. “
We are Fstvl. Festival cancelled for security reasons.
Fête du Bois de Coeur. ” Festivals have life cycles that have the human beings who facilitate them, and although we are only in our fourth year, our cases and long-term aspirations on a personal, professional and geographical level do not allow us to do so. to pour into Heartwood the love it needs. “
ND Festival. “Due to adjustments in investments and sponsorship, it is no longer viable. “
Meadow Festival. It is about reaching an agreement with the owner of the land. “You deserve to never say never, but it would be difficult to recover the occasion once it has been cancelled in this way”.
Penn’s Day. Canceled due to business and higher costs. He may return in 2025.
An illusory match. They have announced that their 2024 will be their last.
The Green Man of Clun. Canceled by the weather. I’ll be in 2025.
Askambury Festival. “It’s time to take a break. “
I have announced that this year’s occasion will be the last. What are the venue settings and the demanding situations of holding an independent festival?
“Festival Melodías de la Bahía”. It has been postponed until 2025.
Lowedefest. Bought until it’s gone after thirteen years.
Neighborhood weekend. There are no events planned for 2024. They would return in 2025.
Unconventional camp. It has been fallow for a year. What are the demanding situations of an independent festival?
Doonhame. La drop in prices forced the cancellation of the festival.
Esplendor. No there will be events in 2024 due to bidding and sourcing issues. The festival hopes to return in 2025.
Love in shape. Festival cancelled and company put into liquidation.
Haystack live. Cancelled due to “unforeseen circumstances”.
Amphill. Festival cancelled without being able to cover the costs. The company is under management.
The festival will take a position this year. No explanation is provided. It suggests that it could be dated back to 2025.
110 above. Pop-up prices mean there will be no festival in 2024 and no plans for a long-term edition.
Standon calls. It is postponed until 2025.
Spring classic. Festival cancelled for fees.
Smoked and uncut. Festival cancelled. No explanation is given.
Demolition party. Postponed until 2025. Situations of works and publicity invoked as an explanation of the reason for the postponement.
Detonation party. Cancelled for 2024 due to costs.
Fête du Tog. No no return of the festival is planned. Loss of the central team and some problems cited as a reason.
Nibley. Announced, 2024 will be their last festival. Cite emerging prices amid a cost-of-living crisis.
Festival of Bingley. No the festival is scheduled to be held again. “Producer prices have skyrocketed. “
Escape to the park. The festival will be positioned due to the “increase in prices for suppliers and artists”.
NASS Festival. After its 2023 edition, it announced that it would return.
Maneuvers in the field. He announced that his 2024 edition will be in its current form.
Nozstock: The hidden valley. It announced that 2024, its 26th edition, would be the definitive event, raising the prices of emerging chains as the explanation for its reluctant closure.
Festival Bluedot. Il that a “fallow year” would be needed for 2024.
Léopallooza. A makes its 2023 edition its ultimate event.
Barn on the farm. He announced that he would check out to return in 2025.
Corporate music in the world.